Ballon d'Or Race Update: Kane Leads as Mbappé's Chances Drop After France's Exit

France were eliminated by Spain after a 0-2 defeat in the World Cup semi-final. Following the result, relevant data platforms have updated the winning probabilities for the Ballon d'Or. Kylian Mbappé’s chances have dropped to 3%, while Lionel Messi has risen to second place with a 17% probability. Harry Kane remains the overwhelming favorite, leading the ranking with a 46% chance of winning the award.

Ballon d'Or winning probabilities:
- Harry Kane (England / Bayern Munich) — 46%
- Lionel Messi (Argentina / Inter Miami) — 17%
- Lamine Yamal (Spain / Barcelona) — 16%
- Jude Bellingham (England / Real Madrid) — 6%
- Ousmane Dembélé (France / Paris Saint-Germain) — 4%
- Kylian Mbappé (France / Real Madrid) — 3%
- Michael Olise (France / Bayern Munich) — 2%
(All other candidates have less than a 2% probability.)